Week 4 Results

pts is the points we expect the opponent to score. market and experts are where each source ranked this week's field. The order is 75% market and 25% expert consensus, the split that beat either source on its own over 90 past weeks — so the points column is deliberately not in order. A team sits higher than a better projection when the experts see something the line does not, and lower when they doubt it.

Inside a tier, the order still counts. Over six seasons the top third of a tier outscored the bottom third by 1.25 points — as much as dropping a whole tier costs (1.13). Narrower tiers do not remove this, so the ranking here is a real preference and not a tiebreaker.

pts is the points we expect this offense to score. market and experts are where each source ranked this week's field. The order is 40% market and 60% expert consensus, the split that beat either source on its own over 90 past weeks — so the points column is deliberately not in order. A team sits higher than a better projection when the experts see something the line does not, and lower when they doubt it.

Inside a tier, the order is noise. Over six seasons the top third of a tier beat the bottom third by 0.18 points, indistinguishable from zero. Start whoever you like from the highest tier you can reach and decide it on matchup or roster.

pts is the fantasy points your league's scoring gives these lines, built from three betting markets on the player himself — his receptions line, his receiving-yards line, and his anytime-touchdown price, all shown beside it. Here the order is the points, because unlike the boards above there is no measured blend weight to apply: historical player props are not public, so this method has never been scored against a season. experts is where consensus ranked him, shown so you can see the disagreement rather than have it averaged away.

Inside a tier, the order is untested. The same check needs historical player props, which are not published, so there is no record to quote here. Read the ranking as the projection and nothing more.

pts is the fantasy points your league's scoring gives these lines, built from four betting markets on the player himself — his passing-yards and rushing-yards lines, and the prices on his passing touchdowns and interceptions, all shown beside it. The last two come from the odds rather than the posted number on purpose: every quarterback on the slate is listed at the same half-interception and nearly all at the same one-and-a-half touchdowns, so those lines separate nobody while the prices behind them separate everybody. Opp D is where the defence he faces sits on the D/ST board above, so Opp D #1 is the toughest draw of the week; it does not move the order, since the matchup is already inside every line. Here the order is the points, because unlike the boards above there is no measured blend weight to apply: historical player props are not public, so this method has never been scored against a season. experts is where consensus ranked him, shown so you can see the disagreement rather than have it averaged away.

Inside a tier, the order is untested, for the same reason as tight ends: the check needs historical player props and those are not published. One caveat this board has and the others do not — passing yards and touchdowns are priced by nine or ten sportsbooks, but interceptions by exactly one. That term is a real matchup read and is kept, but a single book cannot be checked against anyone.