MathisLine
2026 · Week 6

Weekly Streaming Tiers

Generated Tue Oct 13, 11:17 AM EDT · first kickoff Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM EDT

Tier first, then order. The gap between tiers is real. Whether the order inside a tier is worth anything depends on the position — each section says which.

Defense / Special Teams

6 tiers · 28 teams · 8 sportsbooksTier 1: KC, NE, BAL, IND
How to read this

Expert consensus has not been posted for this week, so the order is the market alone. pts is the points we expect the opponent to score.

Inside a tier, the order still counts. Over six seasons the top third of a tier outscored the bottom third by 1.25 points — as much as dropping a whole tier costs (1.13). Narrower tiers do not remove this, so the ranking here is a real preference and not a tiebreaker.

Tier 14 close
1KCvs LAC17.0 pts·market #1
2NEvs NYJ18.2 pts·market #2
3BALvs CLE18.5 pts·market #4
4INDvs TEN18.5 pts·market #4
Tier 24 close
5SEAvs DEN18.8 pts·market #5
6PITvs TB19.0 pts·market #6
7JAXvs HOU20.0 pts·market #8
8LAvs ARI20.0 pts·market #8
Tier 35 close
9PHIvs CAR20.2 pts·market #9
10CARvs PHI21.2 pts·market #10
11TBvs PIT21.5 pts·market #12
12SFvs WAS21.5 pts·market #12
13DENvs SEA21.8 pts·market #13
Tier 45 close
14NOvs NYG22.2 pts·market #14
15HOUvs JAX22.5 pts·market #15
16CLEvs BAL23.0 pts·market #16
17CHIvs ATL23.2 pts·market #18
18NYGvs NO23.2 pts·market #18
Tier 55 close
19BUFvs LV23.9 pts·market #19
20NYJvs NE25.2 pts·market #20
21TENvs IND25.5 pts·market #22
22LACvs KC25.5 pts·market #22
23GBvs DAL26.0 pts·market #23
Tier 65 close
24ATLvs CHI26.2 pts·market #24
25DALvs GB27.0 pts·market #25
26WASvs SF29.0 pts·market #26
27LVvs BUF29.4 pts·market #27
28ARIvs LA32.5 pts·market #28
T1T2T3T4T5T617131925KCNEBALINDSEAPITJAXLAPHICARTBSFDENNOHOUCLECHINYGBUFNYJTENLACGBATLDALWASLVARI

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Kickers

6 tiers · 28 players · 8 sportsbooksTier 1: Harrison Mevis, Tyler Bass, Eddy Pineiro, Trey Smack, Cairo Santos
How to read this

Expert consensus has not been posted for this week, so the order is the market alone. pts is the points we expect this offense to score.

Inside a tier, the order is noise. Over six seasons the top third of a tier beat the bottom third by 0.18 points, indistinguishable from zero. Start whoever you like from the highest tier you can reach and decide it on matchup or roster.

Tier 15 close
1Harrison MevisLA vs ARI32.5 pts·market #1
2Tyler BassBUF vs LV29.4 pts·market #2
3Eddy PineiroSF vs WAS29.0 pts·market #3
4Trey SmackGB vs DAL27.0 pts·market #4
5Cairo SantosCHI vs ATL26.2 pts·market #5
Tier 25 close
6Brandon AubreyDAL vs GB26.0 pts·market #6
7Spencer ShraderIND vs TEN25.5 pts·market #8
8Harrison ButkerKC vs LAC25.5 pts·market #8
9Andy BorregalesNE vs NYJ25.2 pts·market #9
10Matt GayLV vs BUF23.9 pts·market #10
Tier 36 close
11Nick FolkATL vs CHI23.2 pts·market #12
12Daniel CarlsonNO vs NYG23.2 pts·market #12
13Tyler LoopBAL vs CLE23.0 pts·market #13
14Cam LittleJAX vs HOU22.5 pts·market #14
15Dominic ZvadaNYG vs NO22.2 pts·market #15
16Jason MyersSEA vs DEN21.8 pts·market #16
Tier 46 close
17Chris BoswellPIT vs TB21.5 pts·market #18
18Drew StevensWAS vs SF21.5 pts·market #18
19Jake ElliottPHI vs CAR21.2 pts·market #19
20Ryan FitzgeraldCAR vs PHI20.2 pts·market #20
21Ka'imi FairbairnHOU vs JAX20.0 pts·market #22
22Chad RylandARI vs LA20.0 pts·market #22
Tier 55 close
23Chase McLaughlinTB vs PIT19.0 pts·market #23
24Wil LutzDEN vs SEA18.8 pts·market #24
25Andre SzmytCLE vs BAL18.5 pts·market #26
26Joey SlyeTEN vs IND18.5 pts·market #26
27Blake GrupeNYJ vs NE18.2 pts·market #27
Tier 61 close
28Cameron DickerLAC vs KC17.0 pts·market #28
T1T2T3T4T5T61101928Harrison MevisTyler BassEddy PineiroTrey SmackCairo SantosBrandon AubreySpencer ShraderHarrison ButkerAndy BorregalesMatt GayNick FolkDaniel CarlsonTyler LoopCam LittleDominic ZvadaJason MyersChris BoswellDrew StevensJake ElliottRyan FitzgeraldKa'imi FairbairnChad RylandChase McLaughlinWil LutzAndre SzmytJoey SlyeBlake GrupeCameron Dicker

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Tight Ends

4 tiers · 15 players · 7 sportsbooksTier 1: George Kittle, Tyler Warren, Isaiah Likely
How to read this

pts is the fantasy points your league's scoring gives these lines, built from three betting markets on the player himself — his receptions line, his receiving-yards line, and his anytime-touchdown price, all shown beside it. Here the order is the points, because unlike the boards above there is no measured blend weight to apply: historical player props are not public, so this method has never been scored against a season. experts is where consensus ranked him, shown so you can see the disagreement rather than have it averaged away.

Inside a tier, the order is untested. The same check needs historical player props, which are not published, so there is no record to quote here. Read the ranking as the projection and nothing more.

Tier 13 close
1George KittleSF vs WAS14.7 pts·5.5 rec·64 yds·48% TD·experts #1
2Tyler WarrenIND vs TEN13.6 pts·5.5 rec·58 yds·39% TD·experts #2
3Isaiah LikelyNYG vs NO12.9 pts·5.5 rec·52 yds·37% TD·experts #3
Tier 24 close
4Tucker KraftGB vs DAL11.2 pts·4.5 rec·46 yds·34% TD·experts #4
5Hunter HenryNE vs NYJ9.3 pts·3.5 rec·36 yds·35% TD·experts #5
6Brenton StrangeJAX vs HOU8.6 pts·3.5 rec·38 yds·23% TD·experts #8
7Dalton SchultzHOU vs JAX8.0 pts·3.5 rec·30 yds·24% TD·experts #6
Tier 33 close
8Jake FergusonDAL vs GB7.9 pts·3.5 rec·28 yds·28% TD·experts #7
9Kyle PittsATL vs CHI6.8 pts·2.5 rec·28 yds·25% TD·experts #10
10AJ BarnerSEA vs DEN5.8 pts·2.5 rec·20 yds·22% TD·experts #9
Tier 45 close
11Evan EngramDEN vs SEA5.6 pts·2.5 rec·22 yds·15% TD·experts #11
12Gunnar HelmTEN vs IND5.4 pts·2.5 rec·18 yds·18% TD·experts #12
13Noah FantNO vs NYG3.7 pts·1.5 rec·12 yds·16% TD·experts #13
14Theo JohnsonNYG vs NO3.3 pts·1.5 rec·8 yds·15% TD·experts #14
15Nate BoerkircherJAX vs HOU1.6 pts·0.5 rec·6 yds·9% TD·experts #15
T1T2T3T4161116George KittleTyler WarrenIsaiah LikelyTucker KraftHunter HenryBrenton StrangeDalton SchultzJake FergusonKyle PittsAJ BarnerEvan EngramGunnar HelmNoah FantTheo JohnsonNate Boerkircher

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Tier 13 close
1George KittleSF vs WAS12.0 pts·5.5 rec·64 yds·48% TD·experts #1
2Tyler WarrenIND vs TEN10.9 pts·5.5 rec·58 yds·39% TD·experts #2
3Isaiah LikelyNYG vs NO10.1 pts·5.5 rec·52 yds·37% TD·experts #3
Tier 24 close
4Tucker KraftGB vs DAL8.9 pts·4.5 rec·46 yds·34% TD·experts #4
5Hunter HenryNE vs NYJ7.5 pts·3.5 rec·36 yds·35% TD·experts #5
6Brenton StrangeJAX vs HOU6.9 pts·3.5 rec·38 yds·23% TD·experts #8
7Dalton SchultzHOU vs JAX6.2 pts·3.5 rec·30 yds·24% TD·experts #6
Tier 33 close
8Jake FergusonDAL vs GB6.2 pts·3.5 rec·28 yds·28% TD·experts #7
9Kyle PittsATL vs CHI5.6 pts·2.5 rec·28 yds·25% TD·experts #10
10AJ BarnerSEA vs DEN4.6 pts·2.5 rec·20 yds·22% TD·experts #9
Tier 45 close
11Evan EngramDEN vs SEA4.3 pts·2.5 rec·22 yds·15% TD·experts #11
12Gunnar HelmTEN vs IND4.2 pts·2.5 rec·18 yds·18% TD·experts #12
13Noah FantNO vs NYG3.0 pts·1.5 rec·12 yds·16% TD·experts #13
14Theo JohnsonNYG vs NO2.5 pts·1.5 rec·8 yds·15% TD·experts #14
15Nate BoerkircherJAX vs HOU1.3 pts·0.5 rec·6 yds·9% TD·experts #15
T1T2T3T4161116George KittleTyler WarrenIsaiah LikelyTucker KraftHunter HenryBrenton StrangeDalton SchultzJake FergusonKyle PittsAJ BarnerEvan EngramGunnar HelmNoah FantTheo JohnsonNate Boerkircher

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Quarterbacks

3 tiers · 17 players · 6 sportsbooksTier 1: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Drake Maye, Tyler Shough
How to read this

pts is the fantasy points your league's scoring gives these lines, built from four betting markets on the player himself — his passing-yards and rushing-yards lines, and the prices on his passing touchdowns and interceptions, all shown beside it. The last two come from the odds rather than the posted number on purpose: every quarterback on the slate is listed at the same half-interception and nearly all at the same one-and-a-half touchdowns, so those lines separate nobody while the prices behind them separate everybody. Opp D is where the defence he faces sits on the D/ST board above, so Opp D #1 is the toughest draw of the week; it does not move the order, since the matchup is already inside every line. Here the order is the points, because unlike the boards above there is no measured blend weight to apply: historical player props are not public, so this method has never been scored against a season. experts is where consensus ranked him, shown so you can see the disagreement rather than have it averaged away.

Inside a tier, the order is untested, for the same reason as tight ends: the check needs historical player props and those are not published. One caveat this board has and the others do not — passing yards and touchdowns are priced by nine or ten sportsbooks, but interceptions by exactly one. That term is a real matchup read and is kept, but a single book cannot be checked against anyone.

Tier 15 close
1Brock PurdySF vs WAS24.9 pts·246 yds·2.2 TD·0.6 INT·16 rush·Opp D #26·experts #4
2Dak PrescottDAL vs GB24.8 pts·278 yds·2.0 TD·0.0 INT·10 rush·Opp D #23·experts #1
3Jordan LoveGB vs DAL23.5 pts·264 yds·2.0 TD·0.0 INT·Opp D #25·experts #7
4Drake MayeNE vs NYJ23.1 pts·236 yds·1.7 TD·0.0 INT·16 rush·Opp D #20·experts #2
5Tyler ShoughNO vs NYG22.4 pts·252 yds·1.6 TD·0.0 INT·Opp D #18·experts #9
Tier 26 close
6Jalen HurtsPHI vs CAR21.2 pts·218 yds·1.3 TD·0.0 INT·22 rush·Opp D #10·experts #11
7Daniel JonesIND vs TEN21.1 pts·232 yds·1.7 TD·0.0 INT·Opp D #21·experts #16
8Jayden DanielsWAS vs SF20.5 pts·206 yds·1.4 TD·0.6 INT·34 rush·Opp D #12·experts #5
9Trevor LawrenceJAX vs HOU19.6 pts·224 yds·1.4 TD·0.0 INT·12 rush·Opp D #15·experts #3
10Michael PenixATL vs CHI19.6 pts·236 yds·1.6 TD·0.0 INT·Opp D #17·experts #15
11Deshaun WatsonCLE vs BAL19.3 pts·196 yds·1.2 TD·0.0 INT·32 rush·Opp D #3·experts #12
Tier 36 close
12CJ StroudHOU vs JAX19.2 pts·254 yds·1.4 TD·0.6 INT·Opp D #7·experts #8
13Jameis WinstonNYG vs NO19.1 pts·228 yds·1.5 TD·0.0 INT·Opp D #14·experts #14
14Cam WardTEN vs IND17.3 pts·206 yds·1.2 TD·0.0 INT·12 rush·Opp D #4·experts #17
15Sam DarnoldSEA vs DEN16.6 pts·220 yds·1.4 TD·0.8 INT·Opp D #13·experts #10
16Bo NixDEN vs SEA16.0 pts·202 yds·1.2 TD·0.8 INT·14 rush·Opp D #5·experts #6
17Justin HerbertLAC vs KC14.9 pts·192 yds·1.0 TD·0.0 INT·Opp D #1·experts #13
T1T2T31591317Brock PurdyDak PrescottJordan LoveDrake MayeTyler ShoughJalen HurtsDaniel JonesJayden DanielsTrevor LawrenceMichael PenixDeshaun WatsonCJ StroudJameis WinstonCam WardSam DarnoldBo NixJustin Herbert

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.