MathisLine
2026 · Week 7

Weekly Streaming Tiers

Generated Wed Oct 21, 3:31 PM EDT · first kickoff Thu Oct 22, 8:15 PM EDT

Tier first, then order. The gap between tiers is real. Whether the order inside a tier is worth anything depends on the position — each section says which.

Defense / Special Teams

4 tiers · 28 teams · 7 sportsbooksTier 1: HOU, MIN, NYJ, DEN, CLE
How to read this

pts is the points we expect the opponent to score. market and experts are where each source ranked this week's field. The order is 75% market and 25% expert consensus, the split that beat either source on its own over 90 past weeks — so the points column is deliberately not in order. A team sits higher than a better projection when the experts see something the line does not, and lower when they doubt it.

Inside a tier, the order still counts. Over six seasons the top third of a tier outscored the bottom third by 1.25 points — as much as dropping a whole tier costs (1.13). Narrower tiers do not remove this, so the ranking here is a real preference and not a tiebreaker.

Tier 15 close
1HOUvs NYG16.5 pts·market #1·experts #1
2MINvs IND17.8 pts·market #3·experts #2
3NYJvs MIA17.0 pts·market #2·experts #6
4DENvs ARI19.5 pts·market #5·experts #3
5CLEvs TEN18.5 pts·market #4·experts #8
Tier 27 close
6PITvs NO20.5 pts·market #9·experts #4
7SEAvs KC20.0 pts·market #8·experts #9
8TENvs CLE20.0 pts·market #8·experts #11
9DALvs PHI19.8 pts·market #6·experts #16
10CARvs TB20.8 pts·market #10·experts #7
11LAvs LV21.8 pts·market #11·experts #10
12KCvs SEA22.5 pts·market #13·experts #5
Tier 36 close
13MIAvs NYJ22.0 pts·market #12·experts #23
14SFvs ATL23.8 pts·market #16·experts #13
15CHIvs NE23.8 pts·market #16·experts #15
16TBvs CAR23.8 pts·market #16·experts #17
17INDvs MIN23.8 pts·market #16·experts #21
18NOvs PIT24.0 pts·market #18·experts #14
Tier 410 close
19ARIvs DEN24.0 pts·market #18·experts #23
20BALvs CIN24.2 pts·market #20·experts #19
21PHIvs DAL24.2 pts·market #20·experts #27
22NEvs CHI26.8 pts·market #26·experts #12
23NYGvs HOU26.5 pts·market #24·experts #18
24DETvs GB25.2 pts·market #22·experts #25
25LVvs LA26.2 pts·market #23·experts #23
26CINvs BAL26.8 pts·market #26·experts #20
27ATLvs SF26.8 pts·market #26·experts #28
28GBvs DET28.2 pts·market #28·experts #26
T1T2T3T417131925HOUMINNYJDENCLEPITSEATENDALCARLAKCMIASFCHITBINDNOARIBALPHINENYGDETLVCINATLGB

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Kickers

6 tiers · 28 players · 7 sportsbooksTier 1: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Brandon Aubrey, Tyler Loop, Cairo Santos, Will Reichard, Evan McPherson, Jake Bates, Chris Boswell
How to read this

pts is the points we expect this offense to score. market and experts are where each source ranked this week's field. The order is 40% market and 60% expert consensus, the split that beat either source on its own over 90 past weeks — so the points column is deliberately not in order. A team sits higher than a better projection when the experts see something the line does not, and lower when they doubt it.

Inside a tier, the order is noise. Over six seasons the top third of a tier beat the bottom third by 0.18 points, indistinguishable from zero. Start whoever you like from the highest tier you can reach and decide it on matchup or roster.

Tier 18 close
1Ka'imi FairbairnHOU vs NYG26.5 pts·market #5·experts #2
2Brandon AubreyDAL vs PHI24.2 pts·market #8·experts #3
3Tyler LoopBAL vs CIN26.8 pts·market #3·experts #7
4Cairo SantosCHI vs NE26.8 pts·market #3·experts #8
5Will ReichardMIN vs IND23.8 pts·market #14·experts #1
6Evan McPhersonCIN vs BAL24.2 pts·market #8·experts #5
7Jake BatesDET vs GB28.2 pts·market #1·experts #10
8Chris BoswellPIT vs NO24.0 pts·market #10·experts #4
Tier 22 close
9Eddy PineiroSF vs ATL26.8 pts·market #3·experts #12
10Ryan FitzgeraldCAR vs TB23.8 pts·market #14·experts #6
Tier 34 close
11Trey SmackGB vs DET25.2 pts·market #7·experts #16
12Matt GayLV vs LA21.8 pts·market #18·experts #11
13Jason MyersSEA vs KC22.5 pts·market #16·experts #13
14Harrison MevisLA vs LV26.2 pts·market #6·experts #20
Tier 46 close
15Spencer ShraderIND vs MIN17.8 pts·market #26·experts #9
16Chase McLaughlinTB vs CAR20.8 pts·market #19·experts #14
17Andy BorregalesNE vs CHI23.8 pts·market #14·experts #19
18Harrison ButkerKC vs SEA20.0 pts·market #22·experts #15
19Nick FolkATL vs SF23.8 pts·market #14·experts #21
20Wil LutzDEN vs ARI24.0 pts·market #10·experts #25
Tier 55 close
21Chad RylandARI vs DEN19.5 pts·market #24·experts #17
22Blake GrupeNYJ vs MIA22.0 pts·market #17·experts #24
23Daniel CarlsonNO vs PIT20.5 pts·market #20·experts #23
24Andre SzmytCLE vs TEN20.0 pts·market #22·experts #22
25Dominic ZvadaNYG vs HOU16.5 pts·market #28·experts #18
Tier 63 close
26Jake ElliottPHI vs DAL19.8 pts·market #23·experts #26
27Joey SlyeTEN vs CLE18.5 pts·market #25·experts #27
28Riley PattersonMIA vs NYJ17.0 pts·market #27·experts #28
T1T2T3T4T5T6191725Ka'imi FairbairnBrandon AubreyTyler LoopCairo SantosWill ReichardEvan McPhersonJake BatesChris BoswellEddy PineiroRyan FitzgeraldTrey SmackMatt GayJason MyersHarrison MevisSpencer ShraderChase McLaughlinAndy BorregalesHarrison ButkerNick FolkWil LutzChad RylandBlake GrupeDaniel CarlsonAndre SzmytDominic ZvadaJake ElliottJoey SlyeRiley Patterson

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Tight Ends

6 tiers · 23 players · 1 sportsbooksTier 1: Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta
How to read this

pts is the fantasy points your league's scoring gives these lines, built from three betting markets on the player himself — his receptions line, his receiving-yards line, and his anytime-touchdown price, all shown beside it. Here the order is the points, because unlike the boards above there is no measured blend weight to apply: historical player props are not public, so this method has never been scored against a season. experts is where consensus ranked him, shown so you can see the disagreement rather than have it averaged away.

Inside a tier, the order is untested. The same check needs historical player props, which are not published, so there is no record to quote here. Read the ranking as the projection and nothing more.

Tier 13 close
1Trey McBrideARI vs DEN17.2 pts·7.5 rec·70 yds·45% TD·experts #2
2Brock BowersLV vs LA14.8 pts·5.5 rec·66 yds·45% TD·experts #1
3Sam LaPortaDET vs GB12.2 pts·5.0 rec·50 yds·37% TD·experts #3
Tier 24 close
4Colston LovelandCHI vs NE11.1 pts·4.5 rec·44 yds·37% TD·experts #5
5Tucker KraftGB vs DET11.0 pts·4.5 rec·43 yds·37% TD·experts #4
6TJ HockensonMIN vs IND10.7 pts·4.5 rec·38 yds·40% TD·experts #8
7Tyler WarrenIND vs MIN10.4 pts·4.5 rec·40 yds·30% TD·experts #15
Tier 35 close
8Hunter HenryNE vs CHI8.7 pts·3.5 rec·34 yds·31% TD·experts #9
9Michael MayerLV vs LA8.5 pts·3.5 rec·36 yds·25% TD·experts #11
10Tyler HigbeeLA vs LV8.4 pts·3.5 rec·32 yds·29% TD·experts #7
11Juwan JohnsonNO vs PIT8.3 pts·3.5 rec·32 yds·26% TD·experts #6
12AJ BarnerSEA vs KC6.5 pts·2.5 rec·25 yds·25% TD·experts #13
Tier 44 close
13Greg DulcichMIA vs NYJ6.5 pts·2.5 rec·26 yds·22% TD·experts #18
14Evan EngramDEN vs ARI6.2 pts·2.5 rec·22 yds·25% TD·experts #16
15Jake FergusonDAL vs PHI6.2 pts·2.5 rec·20 yds·27% TD·experts #14
16Darren WallerCAR vs TB6.0 pts·2.5 rec·20 yds·25% TD·experts #12
Tier 56 close
17Tommy TrembleCAR vs TB5.9 pts·2.5 rec·18 yds·26% TD·experts #19
18Kenyon SadiqNYJ vs MIA5.8 pts·2.5 rec·18 yds·26% TD·experts #17
19Colby ParkinsonLA vs LV4.8 pts·1.5 rec·18 yds·25% TD·experts #10
20Gunnar HelmTEN vs CLE4.1 pts·1.5 rec·16 yds·17% TD·experts #22
21Eli RaridonNE vs CHI3.8 pts·1.5 rec·14 yds·15% TD·experts #20
22Noah FantNO vs PIT3.4 pts·1.5 rec·11 yds·14% TD·experts #21
Tier 61 close
23Cole KmetCHI vs NE3.3 pts·1.5 rec·8 yds·15% TD·experts #23
T1T2T3T4T5T6181522Trey McBrideBrock BowersSam LaPortaColston LovelandTucker KraftTJ HockensonTyler WarrenHunter HenryMichael MayerTyler HigbeeJuwan JohnsonAJ BarnerGreg DulcichEvan EngramJake FergusonDarren WallerTommy TrembleKenyon SadiqColby ParkinsonGunnar HelmEli RaridonNoah FantCole Kmet

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Tier 13 close
1Trey McBrideARI vs DEN13.4 pts·7.5 rec·70 yds·45% TD·experts #2
2Brock BowersLV vs LA12.0 pts·5.5 rec·66 yds·45% TD·experts #1
3Sam LaPortaDET vs GB9.7 pts·5.0 rec·50 yds·37% TD·experts #3
Tier 24 close
4Colston LovelandCHI vs NE8.8 pts·4.5 rec·44 yds·37% TD·experts #5
5Tucker KraftGB vs DET8.8 pts·4.5 rec·43 yds·37% TD·experts #4
6TJ HockensonMIN vs IND8.5 pts·4.5 rec·38 yds·40% TD·experts #8
7Tyler WarrenIND vs MIN8.1 pts·4.5 rec·40 yds·30% TD·experts #15
Tier 35 close
8Hunter HenryNE vs CHI7.0 pts·3.5 rec·34 yds·31% TD·experts #9
9Michael MayerLV vs LA6.8 pts·3.5 rec·36 yds·25% TD·experts #11
10Tyler HigbeeLA vs LV6.6 pts·3.5 rec·32 yds·29% TD·experts #7
11Juwan JohnsonNO vs PIT6.5 pts·3.5 rec·32 yds·26% TD·experts #6
12AJ BarnerSEA vs KC5.2 pts·2.5 rec·25 yds·25% TD·experts #13
Tier 44 close
13Greg DulcichMIA vs NYJ5.2 pts·2.5 rec·26 yds·22% TD·experts #18
14Evan EngramDEN vs ARI5.0 pts·2.5 rec·22 yds·25% TD·experts #16
15Jake FergusonDAL vs PHI4.9 pts·2.5 rec·20 yds·27% TD·experts #14
16Darren WallerCAR vs TB4.8 pts·2.5 rec·20 yds·25% TD·experts #12
Tier 56 close
17Tommy TrembleCAR vs TB4.7 pts·2.5 rec·18 yds·26% TD·experts #19
18Kenyon SadiqNYJ vs MIA4.5 pts·2.5 rec·18 yds·26% TD·experts #17
19Colby ParkinsonLA vs LV4.0 pts·1.5 rec·18 yds·25% TD·experts #10
20Gunnar HelmTEN vs CLE3.3 pts·1.5 rec·16 yds·17% TD·experts #22
21Eli RaridonNE vs CHI3.0 pts·1.5 rec·14 yds·15% TD·experts #20
22Noah FantNO vs PIT2.7 pts·1.5 rec·11 yds·14% TD·experts #21
Tier 61 close
23Cole KmetCHI vs NE2.5 pts·1.5 rec·8 yds·15% TD·experts #23
T1T2T3T4T5T6181522Trey McBrideBrock BowersSam LaPortaColston LovelandTucker KraftTJ HockensonTyler WarrenHunter HenryMichael MayerTyler HigbeeJuwan JohnsonAJ BarnerGreg DulcichEvan EngramJake FergusonDarren WallerTommy TrembleKenyon SadiqColby ParkinsonGunnar HelmEli RaridonNoah FantCole Kmet

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.

Quarterbacks

7 tiers · 21 players · 1 sportsbooksTier 1: Jordan Love
How to read this

pts is the fantasy points your league's scoring gives these lines, built from four betting markets on the player himself — his passing-yards and rushing-yards lines, and the prices on his passing touchdowns and interceptions, all shown beside it. The last two come from the odds rather than the posted number on purpose: every quarterback on the slate is listed at the same half-interception and nearly all at the same one-and-a-half touchdowns, so those lines separate nobody while the prices behind them separate everybody. Opp D is where the defence he faces sits on the D/ST board above, so Opp D #1 is the toughest draw of the week; it does not move the order, since the matchup is already inside every line. Here the order is the points, because unlike the boards above there is no measured blend weight to apply: historical player props are not public, so this method has never been scored against a season. experts is where consensus ranked him, shown so you can see the disagreement rather than have it averaged away.

Inside a tier, the order is untested, for the same reason as tight ends: the check needs historical player props and those are not published. One caveat specific to this week — no sportsbook in the feed has posted an interception price for this slate, so that term is zero for every quarterback here and separates nobody. Interceptions are priced by a single book at the best of times; the rest of the board is priced by nine or ten, and is unaffected.

Tier 11 close
1Jordan LoveGB vs DET25.1 pts·277 yds·2.1 TD·Opp D #24·experts #2
Tier 24 close
2Jared GoffDET vs GB25.1 pts·279 yds·2.2 TD·Opp D #28·experts #3
3Drake MayeNE vs CHI24.6 pts·250 yds·1.7 TD·28 rush·Opp D #15·experts #1
4Caleb WilliamsCHI vs NE24.4 pts·246 yds·1.9 TD·20 rush·Opp D #22·experts #4
5Bryce YoungCAR vs TB23.3 pts·262 yds·1.9 TD·Opp D #16·experts #7
Tier 33 close
6Matthew StaffordLA vs LV23.2 pts·256 yds·2.1 TD·Opp D #25·experts #5
7Dak PrescottDAL vs PHI23.2 pts·262 yds·1.8 TD·Opp D #21·experts #6
8Bo NixDEN vs ARI20.7 pts·218 yds·1.6 TD·14 rush·Opp D #19·experts #13
Tier 43 close
9Deshaun WatsonCLE vs TEN20.3 pts·202 yds·1.3 TD·30 rush·Opp D #8·experts #14
10Tyler ShoughNO vs PIT19.9 pts·232 yds·1.4 TD·14 rush·Opp D #6·experts #10
11Kyler MurrayMIN vs IND19.6 pts·208 yds·1.4 TD·18 rush·Opp D #17·experts #8
Tier 53 close
12Aaron RodgersPIT vs NO19.4 pts·230 yds·1.6 TD·Opp D #18·experts #11
13Kirk CousinsLV vs LA19.1 pts·238 yds·1.5 TD·Opp D #11·experts #12
14Patrick MahomesKC vs SEA19.1 pts·222 yds·1.3 TD·14 rush·Opp D #7·experts #9
Tier 64 close
15Jacoby BrissettARI vs DEN19.0 pts·244 yds·1.4 TD·Opp D #4·experts #17
16Geno SmithNYJ vs MIA18.9 pts·228 yds·1.5 TD·Opp D #13·experts #16
17Malik WillisMIA vs NYJ18.5 pts·170 yds·1.0 TD·38 rush·Opp D #3·experts #19
18Sam DarnoldSEA vs KC18.2 pts·224 yds·1.4 TD·Opp D #12·experts #18
Tier 73 close
19Tanner McKeePHI vs DAL18.0 pts·216 yds·1.3 TD·Opp D #9·experts #15
20Cam WardTEN vs CLE16.4 pts·196 yds·1.0 TD·Opp D #5·experts #20
21Daniel JonesIND vs MIN16.3 pts·190 yds·1.1 TD·10 rush·Opp D #2·experts #21
T1T2T3T4T5T6T716111621Jordan LoveJared GoffDrake MayeCaleb WilliamsBryce YoungMatthew StaffordDak PrescottBo NixDeshaun WatsonTyler ShoughKyler MurrayAaron RodgersKirk CousinsPatrick MahomesJacoby BrissettGeno SmithMalik WillisSam DarnoldTanner McKeeCam WardDaniel Jones

Dot is the rank the board is sorted by. The bar is one standard deviation of expert disagreement — the same spread the tiers are cut from. Where neighbouring bars overlap the tier line between them is a close call; where a gap opens, it is not. Axis is consensus rank, best on the left.